Sunday, March 23, 2008

The challenges of Taiwan's new president


On March 22, 2008, Taiwan people officially ousted the leading Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that had dominated Taiwan since 2000.

The new president belonged to the opposite party Kuomintang (KMT), and its candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) won a landslide victory by gaining 2.1 million votes more than the candidate of DPP Frank Hsieh (謝長廷). Ma garnered 7.6 million votes, or 58.45 percent, while Frank Hsieh had only 5.4 million votes, or 41.55 percent.

Many KMT supporters have been waiting this day for eight years. Four years ago on March 19, 2004, KMT had a great chance to defeat DDP in the 2004 presidential election. Every poll of major media showed that KMT candidate can win for more than 10 percents of votes than President Chen Shui-bian, who sought for a second-term presidency. However, on the day of election, President Chen was accidentally "shot "by assassinators who had very lousy gun shooting skill (or, I should say, extraordinary skill if he want to minimize the damage to human body), and the bullet only cause a five centimeter scratch on Chen's stomach. DPP acclaimed that the President was heavily wounded and accused KMT of hiring the gunman on the Election Day. Many naïve Taiwanese believed DPP's words and went to vote for the President, resulting Chen's small-margin victory and causing all Taiwanese to suffer four more years.

One year after the Election, the police found a suicide with no guns left behind and declared him the gunman in the gun shooting on March 19. Until today, many people still believe that the 319 Shooting Incident is planned by President Chen himself. Now, back to 2008 Election again, Taiwanese afraid there might be another "incident" on presidential candidates that could change the polls' results showing Ma as the possible new president. Fortunately, there is no surprise. Ma becomes the new president of Taiwan.

On the night of March 22, 2008, fireworks lit up the sky over the headquarters of KMT, as supporters put up victory signs not only to celebrate the winning of Ma Ying-jeou, but also to commemorate this great day of disengagement from President Chen Shui-bian's eight-year rule that has been dogged by controversy, corruption allegations and tensions across the Taiwan Strait. Yes, I know many Taiwanese would love to ignite fire crackers for the inauguration of their newly elected president, but they should hold their excitement after examining the five main challenges of Ma in the next four years.

1. The deficit and inflation
As Chen and Vice President Annette Lu congratulated Ma, saying the government will do all it can to maintain political stability and assist the winners in taking over from them smoothly, they leave a rotten legacy for the new president to fix. According Taiwan Treasury Department, the government debt has increase from NT$2.4 trillion to NT$4 trillion under President Chen's eight-year mandate. If we add the NT$300 billion deficit of the Second Stage Financial Reform (二次金改), the NT$50 billion loss on Government Fund in stock market, and all the debt on state own enterprises such as Taiwan High Speed Rail, then we will find that Taiwan have at least NT$13 trillion debt.

Taiwan's inflation rate is another major economic problem. The wholesale price index (WPI) is expected to increase 2.4 percent this year, following a rise of 6.5 percent 2007 owing to soaring international oil and commodity prices. Early in this year, when Minister of Interior Su Jia-Chyuan said the 8 percent growth of rice prices was nothing serious because the number only reflected a normal increasing rate, thousands of citizens called Interior Department to complain about Su Jia-Chyuan's indifference to the hardship of people. Consumer prices in Taiwan climbed 3.89 percent from a year earlier, which was more than 3.1 percent median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Meanwhile, Food prices rose 9.76 percent, import prices increased 14.06 percent, and wholesale prices rose 8.47 percent, while the only thing that didn't rise was the personal income of Taiwanese.

Thanks to President Chen, the new president has a lot of awful financial problems to fix.

2. The implementation of the three direct links
According to the director of Hong Kong's Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Bureau, the new Taiwan's leader Ma can help spur the implementation of the "three direct links" across Taiwan Strait. The three direct links refers to direct cross-strait postal services, trade, and air and shipping services. Right now, if you want to travel from Taipei to Shanghai, you need to transfer flight at Hong Kong, which means you need to spend five hours on the flights, not including the time waiting for transfer in the airport. If you can flight from Taipei to Shanghai directly without transfer, it only takes you two hours for the flight.

President Chen's explanation for the absence of direct transportation links between Taiwan and mainland China is stupid and silly. He acclaims that China people are poor and evil, thus they cannot come to Taiwan's prosperous land. Taiwan lost its opportunity to become international financial center because of Chen's ideology. Many people have been brain-washed by DPP to believe that the completion of three direct links means China can easily control Taiwan. Now, Ma Ying-jeou not only has to establish regular direct flights between the island and mainland China, he also needs to convince Taiwanese that the national security has been well conceived.

3. The worn-out relationship with Beijing
President Chen makes Taiwan's relationship with Beijing worse in the past eight year by placing Taiwan independence as the top issue. Chen always threatens people that if they don't vote for DPP, China will take over Taiwan and jeopardize the rights they enjoy. This reminds me a question of a German student when I told her that I will like to work in China. She asked me, "Do you like China Communist Party?" It is a weird question. Why I must love Chinese government if I want to work there?

Ma Ying-Jeou must want to ask the same question: Why signing a peace treaty with Beijing and expending the China-Taiwan high-tech connection will lose Taiwan's sovereignty? Taiwan need to engage the mainland to improve the economy, for the island is too small to attract foreign investments that have been sucked out by China's booming economy. That German student who asked me a bewildering question is naïve in thinking that Taiwan can survive under the pressure of global economy without building business connection with China.

During the election, Ma has criticized Chinese government's crackdown on Tibetan protest, and supports the boycott against Beijing Olympic. Now, it's time for Ma to repair the relationship with China. Under the basic agreement that "One China Respectively Interpreted by Each Side," Ma must make sure all the negotiation on building close transportation and economic links with China will not threaten the sovereignty of the island.

4. The balance between building relationship with Washington and avoiding US arms procurement
While Washington switched formal diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, it still legally obligated to ensure Taiwan's security because Taiwan hold a very important position in American military strategy to block the diffusion of Communism. However, US always force Taiwan to buy exorbitant and obsolete American weapon. Yes, it is not that Taiwan doesn't want to buy any weapons from American; the truth is that American only sells some shitty weapons to Taiwan.

In the early 1990s, when US military refused to sell F-16 to Taiwan, Taiwan was forced spending 30 billion franc to buy French Air Force Mirages with overcharged prices. Also, when Taiwan had a contract with Boeing and Hughes for the procurement of personal portable Stinger Missile, what it got was the cumbersome Scorpion Stinger Missile that will decrease the mobility of the army. Sigh….Poor Taiwan.

Taiwan needs to build military capabilities to protect itself, but the amount it spends on arms procurement create a huge burden on its people. Now, Taiwan is the largest buyer of military weapons in the world, and even after KMT passed only one third of the military budget proposed by Defensive Department, Taiwan still need to pay $118 million to America. As I mentioned before, Taiwan already has more than NT$13 trillion debts. If Ma Ying-jeou and KMT submit under the pressure of the US government and pass the entire military budget, Taiwan's debts will increase to stratospheric NT$14 trillion, and every Taiwanese has to shoulder NT$150,000 (about $4700) for arms procurement in the next ten years. Taiwan still needs American protection, and Ma Ying-jeou needs to find a balance between building a friendly relationship with America and avoiding further robust defense spending.

5. The threat of one-party hegemony
It is clear that President Chen leaves an awful mess for Ma Ying-jeou to clean. Taiwanese should not feel relief simply because they change their president. There are still many obstacles on their way to build a strong country. KMT won 81 of 113 seats in the parliamentary election in February, and the overpowering of one political party is certainly not a good thing for the democracy of Taiwan. Lee Ao, one of the greatest human rights fighters in Taiwan, warns people that power can easily corrupt a man's soul, which is the reason why he always supports the opposite party.

My friend and classmate Brandon Hsu is a political enthusiast. He joined the Red Shirt anti-corruption movement in 2006, a campaign organized by former DPP leader Shih Ming-the (施明德) to depose President Chen, and he even designed his clothes and signboards for the movement. I don't like Chen Shui-bian, but I know the reason why I restrain myself to join the Red Shirt anti-corruption movement even the object of the protest is the person I hate. I know Lord Acton's famous proverb too well that "power tends corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely." Chen's corruption is nothing new and Taiwanese need to build a more powerful mechanism to supervise government, not one more political movement to divide its people. Besides, I prefer myself as a loyal opposition, keeping track of the policies of leading political party and supervising their every single movement, which are the only ways to make sure the healthy growth of democracy.

Since Ma, one of my favorite politicians in Taiwan, becomes the president, people should use higher standard to examine his ability and decisions. Even though I don't agree most of the DPP's policies and its pro-independence stance on the issues of two straits, I might support DPP in the future for the health of democracy in Taiwan. Wang Yeh-lih, political science professor of Tunghai University, believes Ma can minimize the concerns of one-party hegemony through arranging the premiership to an ethnic Taiwanese—as opposed to a Mainlander—with a background in economics, while assigning important jobs in government to women, no-party members and individuals from other political parties. But I believe the job of improving the democracy of Taiwan lies on the hand of every Taiwanese, and the work of making sure the freedom of speech and other human rights are in progress cannot depend on any politician, including Harvard-educated Ma Ying-jeou. John Stuart Mill points out in On Liberty that the only stimulus that can keep the ability of the body itself up to a high standard is the liability to watchful criticism of equal ability outside the body. It is every Taiwanese job to watch over KMT's activities in the next four years.

13 comments:

O(∩_∩)O said...

Congrats to Ma Yingjeou. I hope he can contribute better economy for Taiwan in the following 4 years or more than Chen Shuibian did as he promised.
You are right. I don't think the civilian communion is effected by polictics that much. We are holding our different politics views but we still can be good friends.

認真的MURMUR said...

I would say that future is important. However, I think that the history problem of Taiwan is still need to be solved and explained. Why are there still conflict between ethnic group?
In 1948, Then Chinese soldiers went on a cruel shooting spree
Pierced the palms and ankles of people with a lead wire
Tie them up. Execute one by one
20,000 lives were ended in two weeks. This events(228), the KMT still don't give any official apologize. Although many people may say history is not important, we should look foward. However, I think this problem should be solved. And KMT is now be the ruling party. They should take responsibility to let people know the truth about what they did before. Such as 228 "White terror"
They should let all people know what happend in that time.

認真的MURMUR said...

Futhermore, I want to said that History teaches us to forgive mistakes, not forget them.
When everybody said that we should forget the history, I think it is not fair and injustice for the people who ever be persecute by the KMT.

Peter Chu 朱澤人 said...

Chen,
228 event should never be forget, but the way DPP uses it as a tool to divide Taiwan people is unforgivable. Chen Shui-bian simplify the 288 event as a conflict between mainlanders (外省人)and ethnic Taiwanese, and accusing mainlanders as murders. But in fact, there are also a lot of mainlanders been persecuted during the White terror (白色恐怖).

The terrible events under Chiang Kai-shek rule are often manipulated by politicians from both KMT and DPP. For example, Lee Ao (李敖)was sentenced for ten years in jail because he "instigate the independence of Taiwan." However, DPP never mentions him in the 288 Memorial Museum, and KMT also ignores him as a contributer to the democracy of Taiwan. Why is this happened? Because Lee Ao bad-mouths the leaders of both parties.

This is the time for Ma Ying-jeou to repair the gap between ethnic Taiwanese and Mainlanders. Chen, you're right that history should not be forget, and we should make sure that Ma doesn't cover the notorious history of KMT.

Peter Chu 朱澤人 said...

Xiou Xing,
I have many friends who hold a opposite political view from me. That's not a big porblem for me to appreciate other's thought about politics. In fact, I intentionally took the class of a teacher who was a DPP supporter. Forcing yourself to understand your enemy's thoughts is good for you to build a more holistic view.

布蘭登 said...

Because of Ma's election victory, I felt so touched but also a little bit sad. Why? In past 8 years, people in Taiwan have been really painful for tolerating a totally negative political situation and those fucking bad politicians. I hope President Ma can do excellent jobs in the future, since people are confident in their expectation of a full recovery of economics. Ma shouldn't disapoint those people who voted him. Anyway, the point is, this election was turning a new page of the Taiwanese democracy. I think our spring is coming, everything will be much better from now on!

YiFaN ReN said...

Congrats to Mr.Ma's big win!
Indeed,economy is the key point here.
The Taiwanese economy grew 5.7 percent last year. Gains heavily came from jobs in the island’s highly successful computer manufacturing industry, as well as entrepreneurs with mainland investments. But to overcome economy's weaknesses, a lot of works need to be done.
In an interview on Sunday, Mr.Ma claimed that in in his first 100 days Taiwan is gonna open up to mainland Chinese tourism. Also in the next 8 years,there is also gonna be a $130 billion spending program, mostly for infrastructure projects. A variety of ambitious environmental projects are also in Mr. Ma's plan.
On Monday,the stock prices soared in Taiwan, as well as the New Taiwan dollar rose 1.1 percent to 30.229 to the American dollar, the strongest in more than 10 years.
Spring for Taiwan's economy is coming.

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Peter Chu 朱澤人 said...

Brandon,
In the past eight years, people suffer a lot under Chen Shui-bian's rule. Ma's victory might bring a little comfort to us, but we still have to watch over him to make sure he carries out his promises in the election.

Peter Chu 朱澤人 said...

yifan,
Thanks for you flattering remark on Ma and Taiwan's economy. Although the president has changed, much of the functionaries in the government's hierarchy are the same. Ma has a lot of job to do in the next four years to establish a well constitution from bottom to top.

Unknown said...

Good job Peter! What a thoughtful article it is!
Honestly, although I am not a supporter of Ma Ying-jeou, I still highly expect he can handle all of the problems in Taiwan’s society and eventually he won’t be disappointed us. I look forward to seeing he can be more positive, strong-minded and ambitious to face every domestic and international issue in the following days. I think even though Taiwan has to repair the relationship with China and need to gain more connection or corporation with it, in the meanwhile, Ma Ying-jeou has to consider every crucial policy more and more and put Taiwanese benefit as the first priority! Whatever, I truly hope everything can turn out well! Especially what you mention above, hopefully the gap between ethnic Taiwanese and Mainlanders will be melted away one day!!!

Peter Chu 朱澤人 said...

Lynn,
I called my mother and asked her feeling about the election of Ma. She seems to full of hope that Taiwan would become a better place and I certainly can find a good job in Taiwan.

Well, I am not certain about Ma's ability to bring a wonderful future for Taiwanese; but if people have faith on him that he can change thier life in a positive way, then that's enough. The most important quality of a leader in our ages should be the inspiration to courage his people to hope for a better future.

Mike Plugh said...

Hi Peter.

Very interesting. I tried to do a little studying about Taiwanese politics and I have some questions and thoughts for you.

1. It's interesting that a republican hero like Sun Yat-sen was followed by a totalitarian like Chang Kai-shek. The KMT seems to have followed Chang's style for many years.

2. Maybe Chen Shuibian did a bad job (I don't know so much about it), but I find it hard to believe that the solution to Taiwanese economic problems is to build closer ties to mainland China. The economy will probably improve, but what will Taiwan lose in the process? Power? Control? The humanitarian high road?

3. The new KMT government is sure to adopt a neoliberal economic policy and open all market to privatization and deregulation. This might bring a lot of mainland money into Taiwan, but it promises to destroy every social program that the Taiwanese people have benefited from in the past. Maybe socialism or communism or leftism hasn't worked in Taiwan, but I can't see any scenario where the opposite will work either. Some people will get very very rich, but a lot of people will also lose benefits that are more valuable than money.

The neoliberal philosophy has never helped a nation. It has only benefited a few wealthy people and crushed the less fortunate. Keynesian economics are much safer and still profitable. What do you think of this idea?

4. The one party hegemony is scary, especially with the history of the KMT, but it can be a very positive thing if held to a short period. Ideas get their chance to succeed or fail on their own, without political fighting. If they fail, the people will change the government via democratic process. It's very important for the people to watch, listen, and think.

Peter Chu 朱澤人 said...

Mike,
Thanks for your comment. You even do a little stuying about Taiwan politics. Man, you're my role model.

Let me try to answer your difficult questions.

1. Although Chiang Kai-shek inherited KMT from Sun Yat-sen, he exterminated the old members of KMT and tranformed it to "Chiang Kai-shek's KMT." We can say KMT is like amoeba, for it transforms each time when the leader has changed. Unlike America, power usually concentrates on just one person who is both the leader of his party and the president of Taiwan. When one person has so much power, he will just make everyone follow his own style.

2. Most Taiwanese concern the loss of human rights when they build closer ties to mainland China. But after years of doing business with other contries, Taiwan economists found out that trading with China is unavoidable if they want to improve Taiwan's economy. Yes, there is always a chance that Taiwan might lose its sovereignty when building trade with China. But when people can't make a living, there is no use talking about freedom. It's sad.....

3. I really don't understand Keynesian economics. Please allow me to study about it before I can give you my answer.

4. I am positive that Taiwan won't go back to the old days of being controlled by one party. After all, Harvard-educated Ma won't allow this to happen, hahaha. Seriously, Taiwanese people are more mature through higher education and the influence of America. They understand the power of their votes. Looking at the 76.33 percent of voting rate in this presidential election, you can sure that Taiwanese won't easily cede their rights to mainland China.